Things to do in (the first half of) 2010

What will Belgian politics be like in 2010? Well, two well intertwined issues are likely to dominate: state reform and the hole in the budget.

It is expected Belgium will have a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP in 2010. The European Commission says that the deficit should shrink to 3% of GDP in 2012. This means that the coming months, the Belgian federal government of Yves Leterme has to rewrite the budget planning for the coming years.

The nasty thing is that the federal government is almost out of money and will need to ask the regional governments for some more. Flanders only wants to do this if it gets more power in return, which is the so called Maddens-strategy. In other words: if you want to fix the budget, you'll have to fix a state reform.

And then there is that other nasty thing: the electoral district Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde. The federal government of Yves Leterme has to find a solution if it doesn't want to jeopardize the organization of the federal elections in 2011. Former prime minister Jean-Luc Dehaene has gotten the task to seek for a way out, but no progress has been seen so far.

And even if a solution for BHV is found, it probably will put the Flemish government of Kris Peeters under a lot of strain. One of the parties in that regional government is the N-VA, a die-hard Flemish nationalist party which can not live with the slightest compensation for the French speaking community when it comes to BHV. So if CD&V in the federal government accepts a compensation, how will that same CD&V in the Flemish government keep the trust of its coalition partner N-VA?

A last thing to watch in 2010 is the bridge in Antwerp that was annulated in a referendum. The plans for the bridge may be gone, but the mobility problem in Antwerp isn't. The Flemish government has to find a solution in the coming months, wich will not be easy given the history of the conflict.

And oh yes, from the first of July till the 31st of December, Belgium takes over as EU-president. Expect politicians to find solutions for the above mentioned problems in the first half of the year, when the spotlights of the world don't shine so bright yet on them.

Bart Haeck