A new crisis

 

(picture: president of the Belgian House of Representatives Patrick Dewael in discussions with journalists during the first day of the new crisis.©LIEVEN VAN ASSCHE)

For the fifth time in three years Yves Leterme has offered king Albert II his resignation. In what has become a ritual, the king has refused the resignation, in order to buy some time and find a solution for the Belgian political crisis.

Once again, there is trouble with the electoral district Brussels Halle Vilvoorde (BHV). A half year ago, the five political parties of the federal government had agreed to find a solution at Easter. The deadline was postponed by two weeks, then by some more days and finally the Flemish liberals of Open VLD said it was enough. Thursday morning, the 22th of April, they stepped out of the government.

A small reminder why BHV is at the heart of the Belgian political crisis. Belgian is built on two compromises. The Flemish majority in agreed in the seventies not to act as a majority but to negotiate on everything. This is written in constitutional procedures, that say that the parliament can not vote a law if one part of the country (the French speaking MP’s or the Flemish MP’s) want a negotiation first.

The second part of the deal is that the French majority in Brussels agreed not to fully act as a majority. The Flemish minority in is protected. The regional government has e.g. to have as much Dutch speaking ministers as it has French speaking ministers. Officials of the regional state have to be bilingual (Dutch and French).

BHV puts those two compromises under pressure. The Flemish MP’s in the federal government try to change the electoral district, even if negotiations with the French speaking MP's lead to nothing. More and more, they want to act as the majority they are. They have a strong argument to do this: some years ago, the constitutional court has decided that the electoral district BHV is unconstitutional.

The French speaking politicians want to negotiate on a reform of the electoral district, but ask things in return that put the second Belgian compromise under pressure. They ask to lower the protection of the Flemish minority in Brussels, and to expand the protection of the French speaking people in the Flemish municipalities near Brussels. For Flemish MP's, this is not negotiable.

That’s the first reason why BHV is so unsolvable within the borders of Belgian politics as we know it. The second reason is that almost every political party has over promised on BHV and now is in search of this valuable thing in politics: credibility. That was exactly what Alexander De Croo, the 34 year old president of Open VLD, yesterday referred to. He reminded that the deadline that was agreed upon by all the federal majority parties was not respected and there was a breach of trust between his party and the other ones.

This dramatic mix – the quest for political credibility and an attempt to change the fundamentals of Belgian politics – is what this crisis makes so difficult. Add to this the damage to the Belgian image at the dawn of the Belgian EU presidency and the pressure on government bonds of badly performing states, and a new drama is unfolding.

So what now? There are some scenarios and none is easy.

• The best case scenario would be that within some days a solution for BHV is found anyway. Who knows, maybe the scent of crisis can change some minds.
  
• A second scenario is that another party steps in the place of Open VLD (the Flemish liberals) and the government stays on its feet without elections. But that doesn't solve the BHV issue.
  
• A third scenario is that the king accepts the resignation of prime minister Leterme and calls elections. This is a recipe for disaster because the result of the elections in the electoral district BHV will be disputed.
  
• The fourth scenario is that the Flemish MP’s vote the law and act as the majority they are. That is so not done in Belgium that it would provoke a regime crisis.
• One scenario however is no longer an option. Deciding not to decide. It has been done that way for years now, and this is what you get if you refuse to decide too long.

The king has asked for four days now in order to decide, it is told. Wait and see.

 

And for the eternal question: will Belgium split? No. Here is the reason.

Bart Haeck