All good things come to those who are patient

In our last blog, we explained that there were two scenarios. The better one was that after the political exploration of Bart De Wever Elio Di Rupo would take over to start negotiations. The worse one was that someone else had to take over and make more preparations before negotiations could be started.

King Albert II decided to mix the two. Last week, he appointed Elio Di Rupo as 'preformateur'. This title is new. It suggests that it is not possible to start negotiations right now, but Di Rupo has to prepare them. When that job is done, Di Rupo will get a promotion and become formateur.

Words

Words are important in politics, so a little explanation can be useful. Why this odd title? First of all, it seems that the king and his advisors wanted to avoid the titles they gave the senior politicians that had to find a solution for the political crisis after the elections of 2007. No one wants a sequel of what happened then.

The second reason is that the elections were clear. There are only two men in charge: Bart De Wever in Flanders and Elio Di Rupo in the French speaking part of the country. That's why no one else can be in charge now, even if it is too soon to start negotiations.

Not given up

But words are not everything.If you try to take a closer look at the reality behind them, it seems that not much has changed. In a rare press conference last week Mr. De Wever said there were some 'convergences' between him and Elio Di Rupo, but not enough. He also said it is necessary to try and find these convergences.

As long as Di Rupo remains silent, it seems that this is still the situation today: there are not enough 'convergences' between Mr. Di Rupo and Mr. De Wever, but they have not given up searching for them. All good things come to those who are patient.

Bart Haeck

The king is back. Now what?

King Albert II returns today from his visit to Congo, where he celebrated the 50th anniversary of the independence of the former Belgian colony. It was meant to be a low profile visit and so it was. The king remained silent in public. His visit was a signal that Belgium wants to normalize diplomatic relations with Congo but at the same time the Belgian government wanted to make clear that it is not supporting the regime of president Kabila.

But today he is back. That means that Bart De Wever, who is preparing government negotiations, has the opportunity to brief the king on his work. It is expected this will happen in one of the coming days. Later today, De Wever sees the presidents of most of the political parties. A coalition that mirrors the regional government is still seen as the most plausible scenario, although it far from sure.

There are two scenarios now. The better one is that things go fast and Bart De Wever goes to the king,  gives back his mandate, and that the king appoints PS-president Elio Di Rupo to start negotiations. If all goes well, Mr Di Rupo could then become prime minister. It is the best scenario because it is a fast track to the only possible outcome. A solution without Mr. De Wever and Mr. Di Rupo is not imaginable. They won the elections.

The bad one is that Bart De Wever goes to the king, gives back his mandate and that the king decides that it is still too soon to start negotiations. In that case he will give someone else the task to explore the political boundaries of what is possible. This explorer will wear, as the expression in Belgian politics goes, a "parfum de crise", if he or she wants it or not.

Bart Haeck