Caretaking problems

You could call it a variation on a theme. The theme is the deadlock in negotiations for a state reform, the new variation is called royal mediator Johan Vande Lanotte. Appointed last week, the former president of the Flemish socialist party and former vice-prime-minister now has to find a way to bridge the gap between Flemish and French speaking politicians.

So far, there are not many bridges to see. We're still were we were some weeks ago, when N-VA-president Bart De Wever published a compromise text. It was the first official compromise proposal in four months, and the reactions were not good. Senior politicians of the PS called the text unacceptable. Mr De Wever called it a minimum.

Both sides made bold statements, and it will be difficult to erase these statements without losing electoral credibility. That's why Mr Vande Lanotte called his royal mandate to mediate the most difficult task in his political career.

In the meantime, the caretaker government of Yves Leterme is facing problems it can't solve because it hasn't got full political power. That's why King Albert is seeing prime minister Leterme and all the vice-prime-ministers of the caretaking government these days to check how flexible the boundaries of power of a caretaker government are. The most urgent problems are a crisis with asylum seekers (the most urgent measures are taken, but the problem is lingering on), some high level appointments in the federal administration (especially tax administration) and new supervision rules for the financial sector.

Some say it would be a good idea to turn the caretaker government into a real government that can give an answer to urgent matters. The negotiations for a state reform would then go on in the background.

I disagree with that view. It was exactly that solution that was given to the political crisis of 2007. The result was that some urgent matters were taken care for, but the government wasn't capable to start the social-economic and budget reforms that this country needs. The reason? No political party wanted to agree with big changes as long as it wasn't clear what would happen with the state reform. The result: three wasted years for state reform, budget reform and social-economic reform.

The crisis we experience now, happened because politicians finally are trying to start these reforms. It's the only way, however big the crisis may be.

Bart Haeck

 

An MP of the seventies, an Octopus and the fear of poverty

It seems the deadlock in Belgian politics is getting worse. All the Flemish parties approve the compromise text that 'royal clarifier' (and N-VA-president) Bart De Wever made for king Albert II. De Wever said the text is his best offer and that he won't go lower. The French speaking parties are furious and reject the compromise.

The party council of the N-VA accepted the compromise, although it's a far cry from a Flemish Declaration of Independence. The compromise fits however in the so called 'Baert-doctrine' of the former Flemish nationalist party Volksunie, a political party of which the N-VA is seen as the heir.

Frans Baert was an MP for the Volksunie in the late sixties and early seventies. He said Flemish nationalists can agree with a state reform on three conditions:

1. It is a big leap forwards for a more autonomy in Flanders

2. Flanders doesn't pay an unreasonable price

3. It doesn't complicate or slow down next steps towards Flemish independence.

The other Flemish parties supported the compromise text. That comes as no surprise, as the text is an echo of the Octopus note of the Flemish government. In one of our previous blogs, we explained why this is important. The Flemish socialists (sp.a), christian-democrats (CD&V) and liberals (Open VLD) agreed with the Octopus-note some years ago. By echoing it, Mr. De Wever insures himself of  broad support and can prove he isn't the extremist the French speaking politicians accuse him to be.

This means that the compromise text is Baert-doctrine-proof and Octopus-note-proof. This matters, as it strengthens a united front between the Flemish parties.

On the other side of the language barrier, there is a united front as well. Even the French speaking liberals, who were trying to force their way in to the negotiations by sweetening a possible compromise, now rejected the compromise text of Mr. De Wever. The fear of the French speaking politicians is that Wallonia and Brussels will impoverish if they become responsible for their own income.  

It is not easy these days to be king of Belgium. The king now has a note of 'preformateur' Elio Di Rupo (PS) that shapes the contours of further negotiations. And he has a note of royal clarifier Bart De Wever that shapes the contours of further negotiations. The latter is a minimum for the N-VA-president, but unacceptable for the French speaking politicians. 

Bart Haeck

On the brink of new elections

This time it's serious.

Yesterday, 126 days after the elections, N-VA-president Bart De Wever published a document in which he describes a compromise to solve the political crisis. It was rejected immediately by all the French speaking parties (PS, cdH, Ecolo and even the FDF, which is not negotiating.)

De Wever had warned that the compromise would hurt everyone, including his own N-VA. He kept promise. The N-VA accepted to take only small (in a Flemish national perspective)  steps towards more power for the regions. De Wever even suggested compensations for splitting up the electoral district Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde, which is a compromise as well for a Flemish-nationalist.

But for the French speaking parties, it was too much. They fear to impoverish, if the current Belgian  way of financing the regions would change. They also don't like suggestions to put bigger parts of the Brussels region under joint 50/50 Flemish-French speaking command. Now politics in the Brussels region are dominated by the French speaking parties.

The rejection of the compromise means there is  a complete deadlock. By refusing a compromise that is already surprisingly for a die hard flemish nationalist party, the French speaking parties de facto rule out a coalition with the N-VA. But in Flanders the N-VA is the winner of the last elections and is still growing in the polls. For the other Flemish political parties it would be electoral suicide to make a coalition without the N-VA and then accept a worse compromise (seen from the Flemish side of federal politics) than the one Mr. De Wever now suggested.

Later today Mr. De Wever goes to the king to brief him officially on the results of his mandate of 'royal clarifier'. It seems everything is said already. For 126 days, there was no alternative for an agreement between the N-VA and the PS. No alternative but an ugly one: new elections. That ugly alternative is coming very near now.

Bart Haeck

 

Reboot

113 days after the elections, the N-VA rebooted the negotiations for a state reform. N-VA-president Bart De Wever announced on Monday that continuing to talk with the socialists (PS and sp.a), christian-democrats (CD&V and cdH) and the Greens (Groen! and Ecolo) leads to nothing.

It is important to explain what this means and what it doesn't mean.

- It doesn't mean new elections. De Wever said he wants to restart the negotiations with other partners. It isn't even excluded the same partners continue, but with a broader agenda. (at least, that's what the N-VA wants)

- It doesn't have to mean a complete stand still for Belgian politics. De Wever said he is prepared to support the caretaker government in urgent matters. What's more: this support isn't even needed. The caretaker government still has a small majority in the newly elected parliament.

- It means negotiations have to restart from zero and the work of 113 days is probably lost. It's back to where it all started. Ctrl-alt-delete and restart.

Bart Haeck